To participate in the poll, pick your single best answer to the question, in terms of which single time period you think has more probability than any other of being correct as the earliest time period when a Jesus cult was active.
The Jesus cult is distinguished by its emphasis on the name or person of Jesus as a focal point of its message and some form of continuity with or influence on what would later come to be known as Christianity. If this definition doesn't make sense to you, you can use your own definition.
For example: if you think it's 20% likely that the cult existed under Antoninus Pius, 80% likely that the cult existed under Marcus Aurelius, and 100% likely that it existed post-180 CE, then that would imply that you believe it's 20% likely that the start was Antoninus Pius or earlier, 60% likely that the start was under Marcus Aurelius, and 20% likely that it started post-180 CE. If this is what you believe, you would answer Marcus Aurelius because it is the single most likely time period for its start, according to your beliefs.
For another example: if you think it's 5% likely that the cult existed before Tiberius, 40% likely that it existed under Tiberius or Caligula, 70% likely that it existed under Claudius or Nero, and 95% likely that it existed under the Flavians, then you would answer Tiberius, because that 35% likelihood that it started under Tiberius or Caligula is the single most likely time period according to your beliefs.
The Jesus cult is distinguished by its emphasis on the name or person of Jesus as a focal point of its message and some form of continuity with or influence on what would later come to be known as Christianity. If this definition doesn't make sense to you, you can use your own definition.
For example: if you think it's 20% likely that the cult existed under Antoninus Pius, 80% likely that the cult existed under Marcus Aurelius, and 100% likely that it existed post-180 CE, then that would imply that you believe it's 20% likely that the start was Antoninus Pius or earlier, 60% likely that the start was under Marcus Aurelius, and 20% likely that it started post-180 CE. If this is what you believe, you would answer Marcus Aurelius because it is the single most likely time period for its start, according to your beliefs.
For another example: if you think it's 5% likely that the cult existed before Tiberius, 40% likely that it existed under Tiberius or Caligula, 70% likely that it existed under Claudius or Nero, and 95% likely that it existed under the Flavians, then you would answer Tiberius, because that 35% likelihood that it started under Tiberius or Caligula is the single most likely time period according to your beliefs.
Statistics: Posted by Peter Kirby — Thu Feb 13, 2025 2:40 pm